Football playoff picture starting to take shape at halfway point

For area football teams, five weeks was all it took for those on the offensive side of the ball to reach "mid-season form," with the five winning teams in the WBL averaging 47 points apiece last week. The MAC was a little behind their larger neighbors (or a little ahead on defense) as their five winning teams only averaged 41 points apiece.

With the regular season half over, it begins to be time to declare a few teams in and a few teams out of postseason contention. Mathematically speaking, no team is 100 percent guaranteed to make the playoffs yet. For instance, 5-0 Coldwater could possibly lose it final five games, and the teams it has defeated (3-2 Kenton, 4-1 Clinton-Massie, 2-3 Versailles, 4-1 Minster and 2-3 Fort Recovery) could all lose most of their final five games. But we all know that is not happening. Enough wins should easily be there to increase the Cavaliers' already healthy computer-point total and ensure they finish no worse than fifth in Region 24.

At 4-1, Minster is in a similar situation in Region 28, as a top-eight spot is virtually guaranteed. We cannot quite make that call yet for 5-0 St. Marys (as Region 14 looks a little tougher) and 5-0 Marion Local (since the opponents they defeated are not quite as impressive). Look for both teams to be considered playoff locks next week if they reach 6-0.

On the other end of the spectrum, a good rule of thumb after Week 5 is that a team has to be in the top 16, or at least have half as many points as the eighth-ranked team, to still be fighting for the playoffs. It is always possible that, say, 0-5 Bath will win out and make the playoffs. But reality says if the Wildcats lost to Allen East, Elida and Ottawa-Glandorf, they will not beat Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Van Wert and Kenton. Sure, they might win one or two of those games, and in high school sports, three are even possible. But all four are not happening.

That criterion says that besides Bath, 1-4 Shawnee and 1-4 Parkway are not realistically shooting for the postseason any longer. Versailles (2-3) and Delphos St. Johns (1-4) are likely in the same boat and definitely will be without wins this week.
  Four WBL teams (St. Marys, Celina, Wapakoneta and Kenton) reside in the top eight of their regions at the moment, with Defiance only one spot out in Region 10 and Van Wert also in ninth place in Region 14. It is still looking like a good bet that at least four WBL teams will be in the playoffs.

Five MAC teams (Anna, Coldwater, Marion Local, Minster and New Bremen) are currently ranked in the top eight of their regions. St. Henry (9th) and Fort Recovery (14th) are still in contention in Region 24. The MAC is still looking good for four to six playoff teams five weeks from now.

The most important game in the WBL this week features 4-1 Celina traveling to 3-2 Defiance. The winner gets a big bump in its playoff hopes, while the loser will have a much less rosy outlook.

The big game in the MAC is 5-0 Marion Local visiting 4-1 St. Henry. For playoff purposes, this game is much more important for the Redskins than the Flyers. Versailles has a must win game at 3-2 Anna, as does 2-3 Fort Recovery at 1-4 Parkway.

The complete computer points for the five regions involving most area teams can be found throughout the season at: http://user.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm

Division III Region 12:
Team - Ranking (Computer Points)
Wapakoneta - 3rd (8.75)
Celina - 6th (6.65)
Hamilton Badin - 8th (6.50)
Elida - 14th (3.65)
Shawnee - 21st (1.15)

Wapakoneta and Celina both hold at approximately their same positions in the standings after having defeated teams with 2-3 records. The Redskins' game against Bath this week can only hurt their place in the standings.

Celina, however, has a chance to get a little gap between itself and those teams trying to break into the top eight if it can defeat 3-2 Defiance. The Bulldogs need to win at least three of their final games to make the playoffs. With 4-1 Wapakoneta and 5-0 St. Marys still on the schedule, Celina would be well advised to secure a win this week.

Division IV Region 14:
St. Marys - 1st (11.45)
Kenton - 3rd (8.95)
Milan Edison - 8th (6.42)
Van Wert - 9th (6.25)
Bath - 25th (0.00)

Unbeaten St. Marys added a pile of computer points with its win over 3-2 Kenton. It also did not hurt that Sidney picked up its third win of the season. Fewer points await if the Roughriders beat 2-3 Elida this week, but it should be enough to keep St. Marys No. 1 and only one more win away from locking down that playoff berth.

Kenton only drops one spot to third this week after having been dealt its second loss, and the Wildcats remain ranked ahead of seven teams with better records. This is a result of their wins over 4-1 Celina, 3-2 Defiance and 4-1 Wapakoneta. This week's opponent, 3-2 Van Wert, is the only team with a winning record remaining on Kenton's schedule.

Van Wert can only afford one more loss this season and will be motivated not to use it up this week. If the Cougars do lose to Kenton, they will desperately need to beat Celina in Week 9.

Division V Region 18:
Anna - 6th (7.00)
Oak Harbor - 8th (5.21)
Ottawa-Glandorf - 16th (3.45)
Versailles - 21st (2.40)

Anna gave unbeaten Marion Local a scare but fell four places in the standings after the loss. The Rockets should reach the postseason with four more wins, with 2-3 Versailles this week being one of their four remaining opponents with losing records.

Ottawa-Glandorf needs to win at least four out of five games to make the playoffs, with probably its easiest of these games (at 1-4 Shawnee) this week.

If 2-3 Versailles cannot defeat Anna this week, the Tigers will probably need to upset 5-0 Marion Local next week.

Division VI Region 24:
Coldwater - 1st (11.30)
Marion Local - 3rd (9.15)
Lima Perry - 8th (6.00)
St. Henry - 9th (5.80)
Fort Recovery - 14th (4.55)
Parkway - 20th (1.65)

Little to no movement occurred in the standings for the region this week.

Coldwater has locked down its 22nd consecutive trip to the playoffs. Two more wins ensure the Cavaliers the chance to host their opening postseason game, and a visit to 3-2 New Bremen this week could get Coldwater halfway there.

A win by Marion Local over 4-1 St. Henry would let it join Coldwater in the playoffs and probably come close to ensuring a home playoff game for the Flyers.

St. Henry almost cracked the top eight after having defeated 3-2 New Bremen. A win this week over 5-0 Marion Local would take away most of the Redskins' worries. A loss means they will need to win three of their final four, with Minster, Fort Recovery and Coldwater still on the schedule.

Fort Recovery probably gets in the playoffs with a 6-4 record and has a shot at 5-5. The Indians definitely need to secure a win against 1-4 Parkway this week and then have to work through the Anna, Marion Local, St. Henry, Versailles gauntlet.

Division VII Region 28:
Minster - 2nd (6.85)
New Bremen - 5th (5.15)
Triad - 8th (3.61)
Lehman - 9th (3.60)
Delphos St. John's - 19th (1.10)

Minster finds itself only trailing its Week 1 victim Fort Loramie, which appears destined to finish 9-1 and at the top of this region's computer points. The Wildcats will finish in the top eight and now look for three more wins that will ensure they host their first postseason game (two more wins would likely do the trick). On paper, this week's trip to 1-4 Delphos St. John's is their best chance for one of those wins.

New Bremen dropped to fifth place this week but maintains a decent cushion over the teams currently outside of the top eight in the standings. A win over 5-0 Coldwater would lock down a playoff invitation for the Cardinals. In the more likely event of a loss, two wins in the following three games against Parkway, Versailles and St. Johns (combined record 4-11) will likely take New Bremen to the postseason. If the Cardinals make the playoffs, their most likely opponent would be Minster, whom they also play in Week 10.