Second level points important

The Ohio high school football Harbin computer points system consists of two components.

Teams earn first level points based on the number of games they win and the size of the teams they defeat. Second level points are gained by adding up all of the first level points earned by the teams you have defeated.

Thus, the more successful the team you defeat is, the more points you earn.

When the OHSAA lists the computer points for the first time next week, it will report an average for each team. Essentially, they will divide a team's first level points by the number of games they have played and a team's second level points by 10.

Early in the year, that means the average is more affected by the first level points (and thus a higher ranking is given to teams with the most wins instead of teams who defeated tougher competition). When I look at the computer points to get a hint as to which teams will qualify for the playoffs, I do not look at the average. The teams who play in the postseason will be the ones who rack up the most second level points.

It is a credit to our local teams' willingness to play a difficult schedule that almost every area team would move up higher in the rankings if you looked at their second level points instead of their average. Six MAC squads (Coldwater, St. Henry, Versailles, Delphos St. John's, Marion Local and Fort Recovery) and two WBL teams (Wapakoneta and Ottawa-Glandorf) are currently in the top eight of their regions.

However, if you look at second level points, Anna, Minster and Celina join the club of likely playoff qualifiers. While it is almost mathematically impossible for eight MAC teams to earn playoff spots, don't be surprised to see five (or even six if everything breaks right). In the WBL, only those three teams seem playoff likely at the moment, but if early second level points are once again an accurate predictor, don't be surprised to see all three reach the postseason.

The complete computer points for the four regions involving most area teams can be found throughout the season at: www.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm

Region 10:
Team - Ranking (Computer Points)
Wapakoneta - 3rd (7.53)
Bellefontaine - 8th (4.77)
Celina - 9th (4.40)
St. Marys - 17th (2.60)

This region now has seven undefeated teams. Celina is ranked ninth, but I like their future chances due to the Bulldogs having the fifth most second level points. Celina is getting more help from 2-1 Versailles this year, and Bath's defeating Defiance also helped. Not much help will be coming Celina's way this week, as a win over 0-3 Defiance will not generate many computer points.

Wapakoneta has to be happy to see one of its victims, Bellefontaine, in eighth place. Each time Bellefontaine wins, Wapakoneta will also gain points, making it hard for Bellefontaine to ever pass the Redskins. A win over Bath this week should help keep Wapakoneta near their current position in the standings but probably won't move them up any higher.

The first five teams on St. Marys' schedule are all 1-2. The Roughriders need to start winning these games if they have any postseason hopes. Elida is up next.

Region 16:
Ottawa-Glandorf - 1st (6.45)
Coldwater - 2nd (6.30)
Pemberville Eastwood - 8th (4.22)
Castalia Margaretta - 9th (4.17)
Van Wert - 17th (2.38)

Ottawa-Glandorf has beaten larger teams, but 3-0 Coldwater has defeated more successful ones (and thus has the most second level points in this region). In the long run, this will swing the computer point advantage toward the Cavaliers. And they might need that advantage, with eight teams still undefeated in this region.

Coldwater has received almost an identical number of computer points from its wins over Kenton, Bishop Hartley and Minster. All three victims should continue to generate good points for the Cavaliers all season. With St. Henry on tap this weekend, a win could provide Coldwater with a big margin of error for the rest of the season.

Ottawa-Glandorf did not earn big points from its first two wins, but the victory over Celina helped immensely. The Titan's next three opponents (Shawnee, Defiance and Kenton) all have losing records, so do not expect Ottawa-Glandorf to remain on top for long.

Region 22:
St. Henry - 2nd (5.47)
Versailles - 6th (4.68)
Miami East - 8th (4.00)
Anna - 10th (3.93)
Minster - 11th (3.28)
New Bremen - 16th (0.00)
Parkway - 16th (0.00)

What a change a year makes, as none of the six MAC teams in this region finished in the top eight in 2013, and St. Henry and Versailles were both winless at this time.

This region is both top heavy (with eight undefeated teams) and bottom heavy (with twelve 13 of the 25 teams appearing to have no realistic chance at the postseason).

St. Henry could feel fairly secure about its playoff chances if they can defeat Coldwater this weekend, as second level points will keep rolling in from previous victims Covington and Eaton.

Versailles has played three teams with winning records so far, which explains how they are ranked higher than three of the eight undefeated teams in this region (those second level points at work again, as the Tigers have the most in the region). This week's game against New Bremen will not help, however.

Anna has the second most second level points (that win over 2-1 Fort Recovery was quite valuable), making them a threat in this region. But, like Versailles, not much can be gained by playing 0-3 Parkway this week.

Minster is seventh in second level points, and the schedules for their two victims (Fort Loramie and Lehman Catholic) get easier the rest of the way, so the Wildcats can expect a flood of second level points to roll in. Minster has a great opportunity (and a great challenge) against Marion Local this Friday.

New Bremen and Parkway need to start winning now to keep hope alive, but it won't be easy against Versailles and Anna, respectively. Of course, it never seems to be easy in the MAC.

Region 26:
Marion Local - 1st (5.85)
Fort Recovery - 2nd (4.90)
Troy Christian - 9th (3.03)

This region is down to only three undefeated teams. Marion Local is at the top of the heap, but Fort Recovery actually has more second level points. No one else in the region is even close, as the two other undefeated teams (New Miami and Riverview East Academy) have beaten opponents with a combined record of 1-17.

This region is so poor this season that a win over 2-1 Minster might be enough to secure a playoff spot for the Flyers, as long as they pick up another win or two along the way.

Fort Recovery also has a tough game against St. John's. A win here and in the following two weeks against Parkway and New Bremen would have the Indians looking awfully good in this region. A 2-1 record in those three matchups would set up each of the last four games of the season as win-and possibly get-in games for Fort Recovery.

Other Regions of Interest:

Lima Shawnee, Elida and Defiance are all in grave danger of becoming irrelevant in Region 8, but they have hope since only 10 teams remain with winning records.

Kenton and Lima Bath face the same situation, except 17 teams have a winning record in Region 12.

Region 24 is a broken record every year. The region is poor and Delphos St. John's is ranked near the top. Only three teams are undefeated in the region, and St. John's has more second level points than all of them. I can't see how they don't qualify for the playoffs, unless they fail to achieve a winning record.