Teams can lock up playoff spots this week

We are reaching the point of the season when it is almost time that certain teams can be declared to have locked up a playoff spot or to have been mathematically eliminated from postseason consideration. We are also reaching the time of year when what appear to be the big games are not necessarily the most important games for teams trying to reach the playoffs.

The big area game this week is undefeated, top ranked, defending state champion Marion Local visiting undefeated, top ranked and defending state champion Coldwater. Attention from across the state will be on this game, and hardcore high school football fans will be making the trip from hundreds of miles away to witness which team will be the eventual champion of the MAC.

However, from a playoff perspective, it is a meaningless game. The two teams are in different divisions, so they will not need to face each other on their paths to the state championship. The winner will lock up a playoff spot as well as the right to host its first-round playoff game. But let's face it. While not mathematically certain, we know the loser of this game, whichever team it is, will also host a home playoff game.

The real game of postseason importance in the MAC is Minster visiting Fort Recovery. The winner of this game locks up a playoff spot and has a good chance to host a playoff game. The loser will likely also get into the playoffs but may have to worry for a few weeks first. Fort Recovery still has three very difficult games against Marion Local, St. Henry and Versailles. If the Indians lose their final four games, they have about a 50-50 chance of making the postseason anyway, but the scoreboard watching will likely cause an ulcer or two for Indian fans. If Minster loses, it has a 50-50 postseason chance if it can beat Parkway in Week 10. The Wildcats would also need a win over St. Henry or Anna to lock down a chance to repeat as state champions.

The big game in the WBL this week is also the most important one in the computer points, St. Marys visiting Celina. Both teams virtually lock down a playoff berth with a win in this local rivalry. Both teams can get into the postseason with a loss, but the odds will be against them. If the Bulldogs lose, they need to sweep Van Wert, Shawnee and Kenton during their final three games to hopefully grab one of the final two spots in the region. If the Roughriders lose, they need to win two of their final three against Defiance, Wapakoneta and Ottawa-Glandorf to play during Week 11.

The other game of importance in the WBL is Bath at Van Wert. The loser is likely out of contention but the winner keeps its hopes alive for another week.

The complete computer points for the four regions involving most area teams can be found throughout the season at http://www.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm

Region 10:
Team - Ranking (Computer Points)
Wapakoneta - 2nd (12.53)
St. Marys - 4th (10.95)
Celina - 5th (9.50)
Piqua - 9th (7.48)

This week Wapakoneta takes its turn as the highest ranked of the three WBL teams currently in the top eight. The Redskins are also the only undefeated team in this region. Not only did they gain huge points from beating Celina, but the second-level points also rolled in when Bath, Elida, Kenton and Bellefontaine also claimed victories. One more win (such as against Defiance this week) should get Wapakoneta into the playoffs. A second win over Ottawa-Glandorf, St. Marys or Van Wert should earn the Redskins a home playoff game.

St. Marys' loss to Bath dropped them from the ranks of the undefeated and from first to fourth in the playoff standings. The Roughriders need at least two more wins against their final four opponents of Celina, Defiance, Wapakoneta and Ottawa-Glandorf. Thus a sense of urgency remains for St. Mary's at Celina this week.

Celina fell only one spot after losing to Wapakoneta thanks to second-level points received from Elida, Bath and Ottawa-Glandorf. The Bulldogs need at least three wins versus their final four opponents St. Marys, Van Wert, Shawnee and Kenton. Obviously it would be better to get the win this week as St. Marys is worth more points than each of the other three opponents.

Region 18:
Coldwater - 1st (11.12)
Cincinnati Madeira - 8th (6.55)
Carlisle - 9th (6.55)
Versailles - 11th (4.88)
Anna - 24th (0.67)

The OHSAA has the number eight and number nine teams in the standings switched. That is due to a small error on their part which hopefully will be corrected next week.

Undefeated Coldwater should only need two more wins to secure a first round home playoff game. That means even if the Cavaliers lose to Marion Local this week, they just need two wins in their final three games against Versailles, Delphos St. John's and New Bremen. In other words, a home playoff game is fairly secure, with just the opponent to be determined. A better guess as to who that opponent might be can be made after this weekend's games.

Versailles fell three spots after losing to St. Henry. After this week's game against Parkway, the Tigers face three undefeated teams (Coldwater, Marion Local and Fort Recovery). Versailles will need to defeat two of those squads.

Region 22:
Marion Local - 1st (9.72)
St. Henry - 7th (7.17)
Williamsburg - 8th (6.30)
Allen East - 9th (6.20)
Parkway - 24th (0.00)

Marion Local has probably already secured a playoff berth. However, the Flyers likely need nine wins to secure the much desired home playoff game. They will be heavily favored in their final two games against Versailles and St. John's (though some huge upsets have occurred in the history of that Versailles series). That means Marion Local needs to either beat Coldwater this week or Fort Recovery next week to play at Booster Field in Week 11.

St. Henry returned to seventh place after its big win over Versailles last week. With 15 teams remaining with two or fewer losses in this region, the Redskins need to win to assure themselves of a spot in the playoffs. Three wins in its final four games should be good enough, and St. Henry will be favored against New Bremen and Anna. Larger challenges wait in Weeks Eight and Nine against Minster and Fort Recovery.

Region 26:
Fort Recovery - 3rd (6.75)
Minster - 5th (6.00)
Sidney Lehman - 9th (4.50)
New Bremen - 22nd (1.28)

Both Fort Recovery and Minster benefitted greatly from Fort Loramie's and Lehman's wins this week as they did from their victories over New Bremen and Delphos St. John's, respectively. The fact that Lehman defeated 5-1 Riverside also helped each squad's playoff chances.  

As mentioned earlier, Fort Recovery needs one more win to lock up a playoff berth and two more to likely play its first playoff game at home. The schedule after hosting Minster this week includes Marion Local, St. Henry and Versailles.

Minster has two fewer wins than the Indians, but the Wildcats will be favored in their final two games against Anna and Parkway. Those two wins should be enough to get the Wildcats into the playoffs, but they need a win over either Fort Recovery or St. Henry to be a postseason host.

Do not be surprised if both these teams make the postseason and then eventually play each other sometime in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how deep either coach goes into his playbook this Friday with a potential rematch looming.

Other Regions of Interest:

Region 8: Elida moved up one position to 13th place after defeating Van Wert, but it needs to win its last four against Shawnee, Kenton, Ottawa-Glandorf and Bath to even have a long shot at the playoffs. Defiance and Shawnee are out of contention.

Region 12: Ottawa-Glandorf fell one spot to second place after beating Defiance. The Titans likely need to defeat Kenton and Elida to reach the playoffs. An additional win against either Wapakoneta or St. Marys may earn them a home playoff game. Van Wert, Bath and Kenton each need to win their final four games to possibly play in Week 11.

Region 24: Delphos St. John's could yet sneak into the playoffs with only four wins, but winning all four of its final games is probably needed for a realistic chance. That means unlikely wins over both Coldwater and Marion Local.