Locking in on final spots

After nine regular season games, most football teams already know if they are going to be playing in the postseason. For instance, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Anna, Marion Local, Coldwater, St. Henry and Minster are definitely in the playoffs. However, there are always a few area teams still fighting for their life during the final week of the regular season. This year's list includes Van Wert, Kenton and New Bremen.

Forty teams will qualify for the playoffs in the five regions involving local teams. Twenty-three of those spots have already been claimed, with seven others also clinched barring a few minor miracles. That leaves 10 more open postseason positions, with 26 teams in the running to claim them.

As always, we will use www.Calpreps.com and Drew Pasteur's website (www.fantastic50.net) to predict the results of the remaining games for the final week of the season. If every game were to be won by the team the computers expect, Van Wert and New Bremen will be joining the teams in the playoffs, while Kenton will be left in ninth place, just one spot short of qualifying.

Below are the current projected playoff seed, record and computer points as well as Drew Pasteur's probability of qualifying for the playoffs for the top teams in those regions.

Team (Record) - Projected Computer Points (Probability of Making Playoffs)
Division III Region 12:

1) Kettering Alter (9-1) - 27.70 (100%)

2) Bishop Fenwick (8-2) - 25.15 (100%)

3) Vandalia Butler (7-3) - 23.30 (100%)

4) Wapakoneta (8-2) - 22.00 (100%)

5) Hamilton Badin (7-3) - 18.95 (99%)

6) Chaminade-Julienne (7-3) - 18.45 (99%)

7) Trotwood-Madison (6-4) - 17.58 (99%)

8) Mount Healthy (5-5) - 14.82 (84%)

9) Piqua (6-4) - 12.68 (16%)

12) Dayton Carroll (6-4) - 9.50 (2%)

Wapakoneta's result assumes the Redskins lose to St. Marys this week. The Redskins fell one spot thanks to Vandalia Butler's slight upset of Sidney last Friday. The Redskins' most likely playoff opponents in this situation would be Hamilton Badin or Chaminade-Julienne.

The biggest danger to Wapakoneta holding onto fourth place would be if Chaminade-Julienne upsets Kettering Alter this week.

If Wapakoneta defeats St. Marys, the Redskins would have 27.25 points, up into at least second place, where Trotwood-Madison would most likely await. If Alter loses its game, Wapakoneta could be No. 1 in this region.

Division IV Region 14:

1) St. Marys (10-0) - 29.85 (100%)

2) Clear Fork (10-0) - 27.50 (100%)

3) Van Wert (8-2) - 20.65 (99%)

4) Lorain Clearview (9-1) - 18.85 (99%)

5) Marengo Highland (9-1) - 18.65 (62%)

6) Huron (7-3) - 17.74 (95%)

7) Pepper Pike Orange (7-3) - 17.00 (53%)

8) Bryan (7-3) - 16.43 (62%)

9) Kenton (6-4) - 15.00 (39%)

10) Napoleon (6-4) - 14.80 (54%)

11) Port Clinton (6-4) - 13.20 (32%)

14) Bellevue (3-7) - 10.85 (3%)

St. Marys' situation is rather cut and dried. A Roughrider win means they will be the No. 1 seed. A loss to Wapakoneta would drop St. Marys to the No. 2 spot. Bryan and Kenton look to be the top candidates to the Roughriders' first playoff victim, I mean, opponent.

If Van Wert defeats Defiance, it will definitely earn the No. 3 seed and likely host Huron to start the playoffs. A loss to Defiance will drop Van Wert's points to 18.00, most likely fifth place in these standings, resulting in a trip to Lorain Clearview or Marengo Highland.

Kenton is doomed to finish ninth unless Marengo Highland loses to Galion Northmor (9-0), Pepper Pike Orange loses to Beachwood (6-3), or Bryan loses to Evergreen (4-5). However, if Napoleon defeats Bowling Green (5-4), the Wildcats will need two of the previously mentioned upsets to occur.

Division V Region 18:

1) Liberty Center (10-0) - 25.06 (100%)

2) Genoa Area (10-0) - 24.00 (100%)

3) Oak Harbor (9-1) - 20.92 (100%)

4) Elyria Catholic (8-2) - 20.25 (100%)

5) Anna (8-2) - 18.35 (100%)

6) Marion Pleasant (8-2) - 18.25 (99%)

7) Miami East (8-2) - 16.95 (97%)

8) Millbury Lake (7-3) - 15.35 (35%)

9) Archbold (7-3) - 15.25 (29%)

10) North Union (7-3) - 14.46 (32%)

12) Eastwood (6-4) - 11.65 (7%)

Anna is projected to have a long bus ride to an opening playoff game in Elyria. However, if Oak Harbor is upset by Port Clinton (6-3) or Elyria Catholic loses to Rocky River (6-3), the Rockets will get to host their postseason opener instead.

Division VI Region 24:

1) LCC (9-0) - 25.28 (100%)

2) Marion Local (10-0) - 24.55 (100%)

3) Mechanicsburg (9-1) - 21.75 (100%)

4) Coldwater (7-3) - 19.55 (100%)

5) St. Henry (8-2) - 17.50 (100%)

6) Spencerville (8-2) - 14.77 (99%)

7) Covington (7-3) - 14.30 (96%)

8) Troy Christian (8-2) - 13.56 (53%)

9) Lima Perry (7-3) - 11.45 (1%)

10) West Liberty-Salem (7-3) - 11.44 (3%)

11) Tri-County North (6-4) - 11.35 (12%)

13) Deer Park (6-4) - 10.88 (36%)

14) Dayton Christian (8-2) - 10.73 (1%)

These results assume Marion Local defeats Coldwater, giving the Cavaliers three losses in a row. The Flyers can rise to the top spot only if LCC loses to Lucas (7-2). If Marion Local finishes with the No. 2 seed, it will probably host Covington to start the playoffs. A loss to Coldwater drops the Flyers to fourth place, and a much tougher playoff game against St. Henry.

Coldwater is in the same boat as Marion Local. A win and the Cavaliers finish No. 2 and host Covington (again, unless LCC gets upset, then they rise to the top spot). A loss to the Flyers means Coldwater finishes fourth and hosts St. Henry.

St. Henry will finish in fifth place no matter what happens this week, so it might as well send half the coaching staff over to scout that Marion Local-Coldwater game.

Dayton Christian only has a one-percent chance to make the playoffs, but New Bremen fans are hoping that is enough to inspire them against New Miami this week (more on this in the Region 28 section).

Division VII Region 28:

1) Fort Loramie (9-1) - 23.65 (100%)

2) Crestview (9-1) - 17.10 (100%)

3) Minster (7-3) - 15.35 (100%)

4) Ansonia (8-2) - 13.90 (100%)

5) Lehman (7-3) - 13.05 (100%)

6) Miami Valley Christian (7-2) - 11.18 (100%)

7) Riverside (6-4) - 11.00 (100%)

8) New Bremen (6-4) - 8.50 (73%)

12) New Miami (5-5) - 5.77 (26%)

13) Riverdale (5-5) - 5.60 (1%)

The above assumes Minster defeats New Bremen. A New Bremen win in that game would drop Minster to 12.55 points (fifth place), and a probable trip to play Lehman in the opening playoff round. If Minster wins, they would most likely host Miami Valley Christian Academy in Week 11. Riverside would also be a good possibility to face the Wildcats.

With seven playoff spots already claimed, New Bremen is fighting for the last invitation. A win over Minster would move the Cardinals up to 11.20 points (anywhere from sixth through eighth place). If the Cardinals lose to Minster, two teams could possibly prevent New Bremen's trip to the postseason. The first is Riverdale, which passes New Bremen if it upsets 9-0 Pandora-Gilboa. The computers make Riverdale between a four and six touchdown underdog in this game.

The other danger team for New Bremen is New Miami, which passes the Cardinals with 9.18 points if it beats Dayton Christian. Drew Pasteur's computer says Dayton Christian should win by six points. Calpreps.com favors New Miami by 2. The Vamps V2S State Wide Power Ratings (don't ask) favors Dayton Christian by about two touchdowns.

If New Miami pulls off this upset, then New Bremen still has a few chances to make up the difference in points. The Cardinals would need two of the following four upsets to occur: Ben Logan over Urbana, Mississinawa Valley over Bethel, Parkway over St. Henry, or Dayton Jefferson over Cincinnati Hillcrest.