Tuesday, October 29th, 2019
Computer Points In Review
Only a few spots left
By Bruce Monnin
Last week the top MAC teams, as well as St. Marys and Wapakoneta, all played opponents who were no longer in contention for the postseason. A lack of upsets in these games means that three WBL teams (St. Marys, Wapakoneta and Kenton) and four MAC squads (Coldwater, Anna, Mister and Marion Local) have all clinched spots in the playoffs.
Each conference also has one more likely entrant into the playoffs, as Ottawa-Glandorf and New Bremen are also heavily favored to play in Week 11.
So, the goal for area teams this week is to move up in the standings to obtain home playoff games and more favorable first round matchups. No area teams are yet assured of starting their playoff runs on home turf, but all have a chance to do so as long as they win their Week 10 games.
The article later this week will provide a projection of the final computer points, as well as pointing out which upsets can affect area teams.
The complete computer points for the three regions involving most area teams (12, 23 & 28) can be found throughout the season at: http://user.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm
For even more computer point details, subscribe to my weekly podcast at Apple Podcasts. Search for Bruce Monnin's Computer Points.
Also included is the current chance of making the playoffs for each team according to Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 website.
Division III, Region 12:
Team - Ranking (Computer Points) (Chance of playoffs)
Chaminade-Julienne - 1st (23.79) (100%)
Franklin - 2nd (21.50) (100%)
Wapakoneta - 3rd (19.27) (100%)
St. Marys - 4th (16.71) (100%)
Trotwood-Madison - 5th (16.65) (100%)
Hamilton Badin - 6th (16.41) (99+%)
Cincinnati Hughes - 7th (14.63) (90%)
Hamilton Ross - 8th (14.43) (85%)
Greenville - 9th (12.28) (16%)
Kettering Alter - 10th (11.43) (9%)
Wapakoneta has locked up its playoff invitation and is likely to finish no worse than fourth in the standings. A win over Ottawa-Glandorf next week should give the Redskins the No. 2 seed, which means they would most likely host Cincinnati Hughes in the opening round of the playoffs. If Wapakoneta loses next week, it should remain in third place and would most likely host Trotwood-Madison in Week 11.
St. Marys' game against Defiance will have little impact on their playoff situation. A win should give the Roughriders the No. 5 seed, and they could travel to face Hamilton Badin. It also gives St. Marys about a 1-in-4 chance to host the postseason opener. A loss could drop St. Marys to sixth place and give it a probable trip to face Franklin.
Division IV, Region 14:
LaGrange Keystone - 1st (19.95) (100%)
Ottawa-Glandorf - 4th (16.11) (99+%)
Bellevue - 5th (15.57) (98%)
Rossford - 8th (13.01) (9%)
Wooster Triway - 9th (12.39) (11%)
Ottawa-Glandorf plays Wapakoneta to finish out the season. Winning should mean a third-place finish and a home playoff game with Bellevue as a likely opponent. A loss means the Titans could drop to sixth place and will have to travel to open their postseason. The most likely destination seems to be LaGrange Keystone.
Division IV, Region 16:
Cincinnati Wyoming - 1st (25.27) (100%)
Waynesville - 4th (20.58) (100%)
Kenton - 5th (20.31) (100%)
Valley View - 8th (14.48) (82%)
Believe it or not, Kenton's game against Elida may be of great importance. A win should place the Wildcats fourth in the region and should allow them to host their opener. A loss may have Kenton finishing fifth and traveling for Week 11. Either way, Kenton is likely to be facing Cincinnati Indian Hill.
Division VI, Region 23:
Liberty Center - 1st (20.53) (100%)
Lima Central Catholic - 2nd (19.87) (100%)
Coldwater - 3rd (18.78) (100%)
Anna - 4th (18.58) (100%)
Archbold - 5th (17.38) (100%)
Allen East - 6th (16.56) (100%)
Minster - 7th (16.39) (100%)
Sherwood Fairview - 8th (15.11) (97%)
Gibsonburg - 10th (13.22) (3%)
All nine teams listed above won last week, and all nine are favored to win again next week, though five teams face significant challenges. Lima Central Catholic has to play at Lucas. Coldwater still has a game at Marion Local. Minster visits New Bremen and Fairview plays at Ottawa Hills. Finally, Archbold travels to Wauseon in what is a 50-50 game. Who dreamt up this nightmare of a region?
All projections for area teams are tough because they can mostly move one position up or down depending on whether Archbold wins or loses its game.
Coldwater is currently third in this region and a win over Marion Local should keep them there with a home playoff game against Allen East or Minster. A loss sends the Cavaliers on the road, where they may finish fifth or sixth and likely travel to Anna or Minster.
Anna should defeat St. John's and then finish either fourth or fifth. The Rockets look destined to play either Minster or Coldwater in the first round of the playoffs.
With a win over New Bremen, Minster would also finish fourth or fifth and will likely play Anna or Coldwater. A loss to the Cardinals should drop the Wildcats into the eighth and final playoff spot, and give them a road trip to play Lima Central Catholic or Liberty Center. Ironically, the computers say this would be an easier playoff matchup than having to face either of the MAC teams.
Division VII, Region 28:
New Miami - 1st (14.28) (100%)
Fort Loramie - 2nd (14.04) (100%)
Marion Local - 3rd (12.22) (100%)
Cincinnati College Prep - 4th (10.73) (99+%)
Lima Perry - 5th (10.29) (99+%)
New Bremen - 6th (9.91) (91%)
Lockland - 7th (9.14) (49%)
Waynesfield-Goshen - 8th (9.00) (40%)
Hardin Northern - 9th (8.93) (62%)
Mississinawa Valley - 10th (7.80) (28%)
Ansonia - 11th (7.60) (31%)
If Marion Local defeats 8-1 Coldwater, it should rise to No. 2 in the standings, where they would most likely host New Bremen in the opening round of the playoffs. If the Flyers lose to Coldwater, they are likely to fall to the No. 4 seed. In that case, Lima Perry seems to be the most likely victim to visit Booster Field in Week 11.
New Bremen fell one spot from fifth to sixth thanks to defeating St. John's. A win over Minster this week should allow the Cardinals to host their first-round playoff game with a No. 3 seed, also potentially against Lima Perry. A loss to Minster should drop New Bremen to around seventh place, and send the Cardinals on the road to either Fort Loramie or Marion Local.
